[SMM Analysis] Progress Bar Loading for Tin Ore Production Resumption in Myanmar's Wa State: How Will the Tin Market Develop Next?

Water pumping operations have stalled, tunnels have collapsed, and equipment has aged, casting uncertainty on the recovery path of the world's third-largest tin producer.

With the convening of the meeting on December 2, 2025, to collect opinions on water pumping issues in deep mine cavities, the process of resuming production at tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State has once again become a market focus. This meeting aims to address the technical challenges hindering the resumption of production in the mining area, particularly the water accumulation issues in low-altitude mines, which directly impact the recovery pace of the global tin ore supply chain.

In recent years, due to the mining ban implemented in Myanmar's Wa State since August 2023, and subsequent issues such as severe equipment aging, tunnel collapses, and water accumulation, the global tin market supply has remained tight.

• Expectations for supply recovery in Myanmar's Wa State have strengthened, but bottlenecks persist.

As the world's third-largest tin producer, Myanmar's supply situation significantly influences the global tin market balance. Since the mining ban took effect in August 2023, the process of resuming production in Wa State's tin mines has been fraught with setbacks.

The progress of production resumption has fallen significantly short of expectations. Data from late October indicated that since the application process for mining licenses began in July, the overall progress has been slow, primarily due to severe equipment aging, tunnel collapses, and water accumulation resulting from the production halt. Furthermore, the number of mine cavities capable of resuming production has dropped from over 100 to just 60-70, a reduction of more than one-third.

Water pumping issues have become a bottleneck constraining production resumption in high-yield mining areas. High-grade mining areas at low altitudes in Wa State are flooded, and resuming production is extremely difficult. Despite months of water pumping efforts, all operations ceased in early September due to disputes between investors and pumping contractors over costs and profit sharing, leading to continuously rising water levels.

Recently, positive signals have begun to emerge. With the southwest monsoon retreating from Myanmar in mid-October, the rainy season ended, and the local area entered the sunny winter season, raising hopes for an accelerated resumption of tin mining production in Myanmar. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's imports of tin concentrates by physical content reached 15,099 mt in November 2025, a significant increase MoM. Imports of tin concentrates from Myanmar have already shown a rebound, with the overall scale meeting expectations. Imports of tin ore from Myanmar's Wa State are expected to continue their growth trend this month, with imports in metal content potentially reaching 1,500-2,000 mt. Additionally, monthly imports from southern Myanmar amount to 500-800 mt in metal content. If the water pumping issues are resolved subsequently, future tin ore production from the Myanmar region is expected to further increase to 2,000-3,000 mt in metal content.

• The global supply landscape is showing a clear trend towards diversification.

Besides Myanmar, tin supplies from other regions are also gradually recovering and growing. The global tin supply is exhibiting a trend of diversification, which plays an important role in easing market sentiment.

In 2025, persistent conflicts in eastern DRC sparked market concerns about a potential shutdown of Alphamin's Bisie tin mine, which accounts for approximately 6% of global supply. However, the signing of a peace agreement on December 4 alleviated supply concerns in the African region. Indonesia's export situation improved significantly, with tin ingot exports in November increasing substantially compared to October.

• Inventory Changes Reveal Shift in Supply-Demand Pattern

LME inventory rose sharply, reaching its highest level since August 2021. As of December 19, LME inventory stood at 4,645 mt, an increase of 220 mt from the previous day. Domestic social inventory also grew, with tin ingot social inventory reaching 9,192 mt as of December 19, up 732 mt from the previous week.

•  Weak Downstream Demand Fails to Support High Tin Prices

High prices significantly suppressed demand: demand in traditional sectors such as consumer electronics and home appliances remained sluggish. Despite considerable price fluctuations, trading activity in the spot market remained relatively subdued, characterized by "price without market."

Faced with high tin prices, downstream enterprises' purchase willingness was generally restrained. Apart from essential rigid demand, most companies adopted a wait-and-see attitude, with minimal actual purchasing. Even when prices fell and trading showed some recovery, most domestic smelters maintained a steady production pace in December, keeping tin ingot supply relatively stable.

Looking ahead, tin prices may continue to fluctuate at highs due to rigid supply constraints and low inventory support. However, in the short term, if spot demand fails to improve effectively, the suppressive effect of high prices on actual consumption will persist, and inventory may continue to face some pressure.

• Analysis and Forecast of Future Tin Price Trends

Considering changes in supply-demand fundamentals, tin prices face significant downward pressure in the future, with risk factors accumulated after short-term spikes warranting particular attention.

In the short term, tin prices are likely to fluctuate considerably. Over the medium term (3-6 months), downward pressure on prices is expected to increase significantly. As Wa State supply recovers and African imports rise, the supply side will gradually improve. Meanwhile, with no clear signs of recovery on the demand side, the shift in the supply-demand pattern will exert pressure on tin prices.